It’s the big night. We’ve heard the cases of why movies should win; Shape of Water is a “technical” marvel, what shouldn’t win, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing Missouri because of its “problematic” story, and what would be a great story, Get Out, a movie that came from a February release to a serious best picture contender. Now we get to see what the Academy has decided.
I’ve compiled some of my thoughts on who should win, who will win, and what should win even though it wasn’t nominated. The latter category is (mostly) a joke and my way to talk about some of the forgotten great movies from this year.
Best Supporting Actress
- Allison Janney, I, Tonya
- Laure Metcalf, Lady Bird
- Lesley Manville, Phanton Thread
- Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
- Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Who Will Win: Janney
Who Should Win: Metcalf
Who Should Win Even Though They Aren’t Nominated: Elizabeth Olsen, Wind River
Allison Janey is the runaway leader. According to Bovada, an online betting site, she is a -600 favorite. If you’re lucky enough not to be cursed with the gambling gene and don’t know what any of that means, god bless you, but essentially if you bet 100 dollars on Janney to win, you would get back 16. Those are some pretty stacked odds.
I haven’t had a chance to see I, Tonya, so I can’t comment on the merits of Janney being favored. Metcalf has the second best odds to win. A veteran theater and television actor, Metcalf turns in a powerful performance as a mother in Ladybird. I actually have some problems with her character and have trouble relating to her, but that doesn’t make it any less well done.
Taylor Sheridan’s Wind River is a forgotten gem of this year (I’ll talk more about this later), and Olsen turns in a dramatic role that’s worthy of praise as an FBI agent trying to figure out who killed a young native American woman.
Best Supporting Actor
- Christopher Plumber, All the Money in the World
- Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
- Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
- Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards
- Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Who Will Win: Rockwell
Who Should Win: Rockwell
Who Should Win Even Though They Aren’t Nominated: The Cast of Kids in It
Sam Rockwell has been one of my favorite actors for years. He’s absolutely hilarious in Galaxy Quest as the crewman who always thinks he’s going to die. He puts on a showcase in Moon, a movie that is literally just him on screen by himself almost the entire film. Rockwell’s also amazing in Choke, which is sneakily a well done adaptation of Chuck Palanhuik’s novel about a sex addict and his various schemes. And I haven’t even mentioned his role in Iron Man 2 (ok, I’m kidding about that one).
People are upset about Three Billboards and especially Rockwell’s character because they see the film as a redemption arc for a violent and racist cop, who quite frankly should be in jail. I don’t think of it that way. Rockwell’s character changes throughout Three Billboards, and he makes some positive steps, but the film far from forgives him for what he’s done. Sam Rockwell deserves this award, and don’t listen to anyone who tells you otherwise.
Woody Harrelson also does a fantastic job in Three Billboards. He plays a much more sympathetic character with less screen time, but it’s a well deserved nomination. I’m no fan of The Shape of Water (whoops, I said it), but Richard Jenkins is the best part of the film. In a movie about repressed people who are forced to live on the fringes of society, it’s much easier to relate to a persecuted gay man than a fish person. I haven’t had a chance to see All the Money in the World or The Florida Project, but the nomination for Plumber seems to be for the message Ridley Scott sent by recasting Spacey’s role after the horrible accusations came out.
It wasn’t nearly as scary as I had hoped, but they couldn’t have cast the movie any better. Wolfhard steals a lot of scenes as Richie, but all of the kids are perfect in their roles. I obviously wouldn’t take this away from Rockwell, but I can’t help but mention their performances.
Best Actress
- Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
- Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
- Meryl Streep, The Post
- Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
- Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Who Will Win: McDormand
Who Should Win: McDormand
Who Should Win Even Though They Aren’t Nominated: Seo-Hyun Ahn, Okja
This award is about as locked up as anything being given out tonight. Frances McDormand is going to win, and she deserves to win. We already knew she was an incredible actress, but the main role in Three Billboards is written to highlight all of her talents. She makes the movie, and is about as unlikeable at times as someone can be for what she’s gone through (especially in her scenes with Peter Dinklage).
Streep’s nomination doesn’t need to be discussed. It happens every year and in a movie that had the talent on paper that didn’t translate to screen, it was inevitable she would get nominated. Sally Hawkins does a lot with no words and Ronan proves once again she’s one of the best young actress, but it’s impossible to contend with McDormand.
Okja was a victim of its platform, Netflix. If released by a major studio, I honestly think it could have been a best picture nominee. Part of the reason for that is Seo-Hyun Ahn, the 14 year old actress and main character of the film. If you haven’t seen Okja, you should really should. It’s only a click away on Netflix.
Best Actor
- Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
- Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
- Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
- Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
- Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Who Will Win: Oldman
Who Should Win: Oldman
Who Should Win Even Though They Aren’t Nominated: Robert Pattison, Good Time
If I told you that Daniel Day Lewis was in a Paul Thomas Anderson movie and that he announced it would be his last role, what would you have bet he would have won best actor? I would have probably bet anything you wanted, but alas, it seems that the once-in-a-generation talent will not be taking home the statue tonight.
Oldman disappears into a historic role of Winston Churchill. It’s quite surprising that a chameleon like Oldman doesn’t have an Oscar, and this was the perfect chance for him to get one. I haven’t seen Roman J. Israel, Esq., but it seems that Denzel’s in the same boat as Meryl Streep; a decorated actor nominated for a role that isn’t in his top half of performances. There are rumors that Chalamet could win, or even Kaluuya could sneak in for Get Out, but I have a feeling this will go to Oldman.
Robert Pattison had a great year. Between Lost City of Z and Good Time, he has gone the route of other child stars like Daniel Radcliffe, choosing roles that he finds interesting and no longer going for a box office haul. If you haven’t seen Good Time, it is one of the most unpredictable movies of the year. There was not a single point in which I knew what was going to happen in that movie. Pattinson’s character is such a slimy, unethical crook and he plays him to perfection.
Best Director
- Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
- Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
- Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
- Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
- Jordan Peele, Get Out
Who Will Win: del Toro
Who Should Win: Nolan
Who Should Win Even Though They Aren’t Nominated: Taylor Sheridan, Wind River
Del Toro is a heavy favorite for The Shape of Water. I am not a fan of the film, it feels like a worse version of stories he’s told before, but I understand the praise. He shot most of the film on the set of The Strain and it is a good looking and well polished final product.
Nolan is actually the second betting favorite for Dunkirk, but I don’t see a scenario where he wins this award. I think the sleeper pick here is Get Out. People are huge fans of the film and giving a first time director an award for a thriller/horror movie would be a statement.
Wind River is possibly my favorite film of 2018. Taylor Sheridan has wrote Sicario, Hell or High Water and Wind River in the last three years. Wind River is the only one he has directed, but it may be the best of three. It has literally just got on Netflix, so there’s no excuse to not watch it. The fact that the movie was produced by Harvey Weinstein took any chance it had from getting nominated away (Sheridan and the rest of the producers acted quickly to have Weinstein and his company scrubbed from the credits when news broke). Wind River has a pair of the most intense scenes I’ve seen on film this year. I don’t usually get squeamish while watching movies, but one of them made me want to turn away. The film is a hell of an accomplishment and I can’t wait to see Sheridan’s new series, Yellowstone, on Netflix.
Best Picture
- Call Me By Your Name
- Darkest Hour
- Dunkirk
- Get Out
- Lady Bird
- Phantom Thread
- The Post
- The Shape of Water
- Three Billboards
Who Will Win: Three Billboards
Who Should Win: Three Billboards
Who Should Win Even Though They Aren’t Nominated: Wind River, but since I spoke about that already, I’d include Okja and mother!
This is a three horse race between The Shape of Water, Three Billboards and Get Out. The latter is much more of a long shot, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it bring home the Oscar.
I think that Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird and Three Billboards would all be satisfying picks. The Shape of Water would not. Pans Labyrinth is del Toro’s masterpiece, and I would even argue that Crimson Peak, while far from perfect, is a more enjoyable film than The Shape of Water. Most of del Toro’s films are about monsters that are truly more human than people, and The Shape of Water is all of that presented in the most formulaic and crowd-pleasing way (I never thought I would say a movie that fish people making love to humans is crowd pleasing and mainstream).
Three Billboards has the best performances of the year. It will win two trophies for acting, and it has a compelling screenplay and story. I personally don’t think it deserves the controversy it has behind it and I believe it should be the best picture.
There were a lot of good movies this year, hence my three other movies I could have seen as best picture. mother!, Okja and Wind River were some of the best films of the year and the latter two are on Netflix. If you haven’t had a chance to see them, I promise you will like the latter two. mother! will invoke some sort of reaction from you. Whether it is good or bad, I cannot tell you, but it’s a film that I enjoyed.
That’s a lot of words, so I’ll stop writing. Good luck to everyone tonight (except Shape of Water)
Selected Thoughts and Other Interesting Things 